语不惊人死不休,老外的一个博客上面发出了本文这样的标题文章。

高德纳咨询公司(Gartner)是全球最具权威的IT研究与顾问咨询公司(官方网站: http://www.gartner.com/ 英文),Gartner新近发表报告说,Vista面临失败,这是为啥微软决心吃定Yahoo(雅虎全球)的可能原因。

Gartner分析师迈克尔和尼尔麦克唐纳说,会议听众昨天表示,微软的Windows产品正处于崩溃边缘,除非微软决心改造它的操作系统。

他们明确指出,Vista的普及率现在是非常之慢,迄今为止企业仅有6%升级。Vista中的基础代码过于庞大,这意味着变化需要多年的时间,只有高端计算机真的可以运行它。

对于大多数早期采用者(和所有Mac用户) ,把浏览器当作操作系统的越来越多了,越来越多的web化网上应用(如Google Docs 在线办公系统)在冲击Windows系统。 Vista系统确实比较完美,但是仍然不能解决Web化的趋势问题。

微软去年Windows系统的收入为150亿美元,还有160亿美元来自于微软的Office办公套件和Exchange Server,这些占了60 % ,没有他们的消费和商业桌面软件的利润,微软其他方面实在不可言道。

真正的问题不是"微软采取什么办法去修正完善他们的Windows产品" ,而是"即使是Windows和Office被完美的,它足以维持微软长期保持如此的高额利润么? "我想答案应该是后者的回答:"不会。 " 当然,这是他们为什么要吃定雅虎的那么迫切。在线广告收入是微软唯一真正有希望的长期生存方式。

英文博客原文如下:

Gartner Says Vista Will Collapse. And That’s Why The Yahoo Deal Must Happen

Gartner analysts Michael Silver and Neil MacDonald told a conference audience yesterday that Microsoft’s Windows product is collapsing and must make radical changes to its operating system or risk becoming a has-been.

They specifically pointed out the slow adoption rate by businesses – just 6% to date – and the fact that the Vista code base is so large. That means changes take years, and only high end computers can really take advantage of it anyway.

For most early adopters (and all Mac users), the browser is increasingly the only operating system that matters anyway. Windows isn’t really that relevant any more just because of the increasing utility of online applications like Google Docs, which competes with Microsoft Office. Vista could be perfect and it still wouldn’t matter. The fact that it is flawed only makes the situation worse.

Microsoft makes a ton of revenue on sales of software that sit on the computer. $15 billion a year for Windows alone, and another $16 billion for Office and Exchange Server in 2007. That’s 60% of Microsoft’s total revenue, and profits from those groups float the rest of the company. Microsoft isn’t a viable company without their consumer and business desktop software profits.

The real question isn’t “What can Microsoft do to fix their Windows product?” but rather “Even If Windows and Office were perfect, would it be enough to keep Microsoft relevant in the medium term?” I think the answer to that latter question might be “nope.” And that, of course, is why they want Yahoo so badly. Online advertising revenue is their only real hope of long term survival.